Notes from the last 150 years made by two environmental pioneers have helped show that the speed at which global warming is pushing spring events forward is not slowing. Boston University’s Libby Ellwood and her teammates compared flowering times recorded by Henry David Thoreau and Aldo Leopold to spring 2010 and 2012, the warmest and second warmest on record. “Plants flowered earlier than ever before in these recent record warm years,” Libby told me. That advance is so closely linked to the warming our world’s experiencing, the researchers showed that they can predict flowering time from temperature. This knowledge could help predict climate change’s impact on crops.
“There will likely be winners and losers with climate change,” Libby said. “It is quite possible that some species will be able to use the warmer temperatures and longer growing season to their advantage. The risk for plants that begin growing as soon as the weather is warm though, is that the new spring growth and flowers are susceptible to late season frosts, and this can set back plant growth and reproduction.”
To understand what global warming is doing to other organisms, scientists have to find records about them from times when fossil fuel burning wasn’t as widespread as today. Thoreau and Leopold are best known as authors of books that lay the foundations of modern environmentalism. Both Thoreau’s Walden and Leopold’s A Sand County Almanac, published in 1854 and 1949 respectively, hold powerful ideas on the relationship between humans and nature. But both authors also studied phenology – the cycle of biological events such as plant flowering throughout the year. Read the rest of this entry »